A must hit by calculator works out whether a must-hit-by jackpot is worth playing: it compares what you’ll bet on average before the jackpot hits with what the jackpot is likely to pay when it does. Enter the numbers from any must-hit-by machine below and it shows the expected value, the return and the break-even meter at the payback setting you choose.
Below the calculator, a worked example shows how it gets there, and why the payback setting matters more than most players think.
Free tool
Must hit by calculator
Works for any single must-hit-by jackpot. Change any number and the result updates.
Expected value
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- Return
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- Break-even meter
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- Expected to play
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- Worst case to play
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The average hit point sets where the jackpot is expected to land between the current amount and the must-hit-by (0.5 means halfway). It ignores other jackpots on the same machine, and the real payback setting is unknown to players. The Slot Hustlers bot reads every meter from a photo and runs this across the full range of likely settings. 21+. Expected value is a long-run average; any session can lose.
How the must hit by calculator works
A must-hit-by jackpot has to pay before it reaches the amount printed on the machine. Between the current amount and that cap, it can hit at any point. The average hit point sets where it lands on average: 0.5, the default, means halfway between where it is now and the cap, which is what you get if every point is equally likely. You can change it if your own tracking says a game tends to hit earlier or later. That gives you two numbers:
- What you win on average: the current amount plus the average hit point × the distance to the cap (half of it at 0.5).
- What you bet on average: the same share of the distance to the cap, multiplied by how much has to be played to move the meter $1.
Every dollar you bet also plays the rest of the game, which returns something on its own. So the cost of chasing the jackpot isn’t the full amount you bet; it’s the part you lose to the house edge on everything else.
The expected value is then:
EV = average jackpot − (average amount bet × what the rest of the game keeps)
The inputs
| Input | Where it comes from |
|---|---|
| Current jackpot | The meter on the screen |
| Must hit by | Printed on the machine or in the help screens |
| Reset | Where the meter starts again after it pays |
| Average hit point | Where it lands on average between now and the cap; 0.5 = halfway |
| Played per $1 of meter rise | How fast the meter moves; the key speed number |
| Payback setting (RTP) | Chosen by the casino and not shown to players |
The last one is the problem. You can read the jackpot, the cap and the reset off the machine, but the payback setting is a guess. That’s where most published “play at X” numbers come from: someone picked a setting, usually 87%, and worked out the line.
Worked example: a $500 must hit by jackpot
Take a $500 must-hit-by jackpot that resets at $350, where every $250 played moves the meter up $1, with a $2 bet per spin. The meter shows $480.
At an assumed 87% payback:
- The average jackpot is $480 plus half of the remaining $20: $490.
- The average amount you’ll play before it hits is half of $20 × $250: $2,500 (about 1,250 spins at $2).
- Part of the 87% payback comes from this jackpot itself, so the rest of the game returns about 84.7%. On $2,500, that keeps about $382.
- $490 − $382 = about +$108 expected value, a return of roughly 104.3%.
The break-even meter at 87% is about $474.50. Below that, the same machine is a losing play.
Now change the payback setting
Here’s the same machine at the same $480 meter, with only the payback setting changed:
| Payback setting | Expected value | Return | Break-even meter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | +$58.33 | 102.33% | $477.36 |
| 87% | +$108.33 | 104.33% | $474.47 |
| 88% | +$133.33 | 105.33% | $472.73 |
| 90% | +$183.33 | 107.33% | $468.42 |
| 92% | +$233.33 | 109.33% | $462.50 |
Calculated with the method above. Figures are for this example only.
Same meter, same machine: the expected value almost doubles between 85% and 90%, and the break-even point moves by about $9. On a machine sitting right at the line, the setting is the difference between a play and a mistake.
That’s why Slot Hustlers doesn’t stop at one setting. Send a photo of a supported machine in Discord, and the bot reads every meter and runs this calculation across the full range of likely payback settings, so you see where the play holds up and where it doesn’t. You can see a real example of this in our RTP sweep.
What this calculator doesn’t do
It’s built for one jackpot at a time. Real machines are often more complicated:
- Several jackpots on one machine. Ainsworth games have two, and IGT Classic Hits have three at every bet level (see Money Storm). Each needs its own calculation, and they interact.
- Must-hit-by features instead of cash. Games like Regal Riches bank wilds or free games, and their value depends on how the feature plays out, not just on a dollar amount.
- Unknown meter speed. The speed is rarely printed. Getting it wrong moves the answer as much as the payback setting does.
For the theory behind all of this, see Must Hit By Slot Machines Explained and What Is RTP in Slots?.
FAQ
What is a must hit by calculator?
A tool that works out the expected value of playing a must-hit-by jackpot, using the current amount, the cap, the reset, how fast the meter rises and the machine’s payback setting.
What is the average hit point?
It’s where the jackpot is expected to land between the current amount and the must-hit-by amount. The default, 0.5, means halfway, which is what you get if every point is equally likely. You can change it if your tracking suggests a game hits earlier or later.
What payback setting should I use?
Players can’t see it, so 87% is a common working assumption. Try a few settings to see how sensitive the play is; if it’s only positive at the loosest settings, it’s a thin play.
How do I find the meter speed?
It’s rarely shown on the machine. Players estimate it by tracking how much the meter moves over a known amount of play.
Does a positive result mean I’ll win?
No. Expected value is a long-run average over many plays. Any single session can lose, especially when the jackpot hits late.
For players 21+. Slots have a house edge; expected value is a long-run average, and any session can lose. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.